I touched on the topic of the trade war a few days ago. Although us peons and worker bees can’t know everything that’s going on behind the scenes, from what we can see on the surface, it appears that little has changed since then. Since I wrote that post on April 17, I’ve spent some time looking around more carefully at the things that surround me and make me happy, in an effort to determine how much of it might be at risk as massive changes to the world order begin to take shape.
Massive-and, I would argue-long overdue changes; changes necessary to rebalance a world that has gotten completely out of whack. Your humble blogger was born in 1970, when the industrial might of the USA was at its pinnacle. Throughout my life, I have watched as my nation has been hollowed out and my society has stratified into extremes, and collectively, the US has all but forgotten how to make things. Yes, I know there are positive arguments for deindustrialization: less pollution, a higher standard of living brought by a knowledge and financial economy, and never mind those coal miners and factory workers who are out of jobs, because they can just “learn to code.” I’ve heard all the globalist arguments, I’ve considered them, and I have rejected them. Call me old fashioned, fine: I believe a nation cannot be strong unless it can make stuff. Oh, and, by the way: if you “learned to code,” you’re about to be out of a job.
You know it, we all know it, we can’t escape it: “MADE IN CHINA.” Almost everything I own made after 2000 says it, and more so with the toys than almost anything else. I can remember being 20 years old during the Clinton years and arguing with my college friends about how dangerous it was that we were giving away our manufacturing to that country, that we were going to regret “Globalization” (remember Ross Perot’s “Giant Sucking Sound?” 1992 was the first presidential election I was able to vote in: bet you can guess who I voted for!)
“Deglobalization” is upon us
Here is the truth that I have to face: there are far, far more important things in this world than my little slot car hobby! I know that there are things happening right now that must happen, and things that are inevitable; there are genies that cannot be put back into the bottle. I know this…but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t hurt.
I’ve taken my own advice and stocked up: I’ve bought two additional boxes full of complete Auto World Ultra G chassis in addition to the dozen I already had, and I have boxes of parts for them; I can probably last for years on what I’ve collected since 2020. That’s good, because it’s a safe bet that none of this stuff is going to be available much longer.
In fact, Auto World – and its parent company, Round 2 – provides a perfect case study for what’s about to hit us. Round 2, which is the parent company of Johnny Lightning, MPC, Lindberg, Racing Champions, and Big Country Toys, in addition to Auto World and several other brands that make the kinds of toys I love and collect, seems like a poster child for the trouble we’ve gotten ourselves into. Pick up any of their products made over the last 25 years, and those 3 ubiquitous words in sans-serif all caps will be somewhere on it. Every toy company is going to find itself in trouble, but Mattel, by contrast, has at least diversified a little; I’ve already mentioned that most Hot Wheels are now being made in Indonesia, Thailand, or Malaysia. We may lose the super-premium RLCs, but most Hot Wheels are likely to still be available. Of course, this isn’t a sure thing! As new alliances are forged, we can’t be sure what’s going to happen! But Round 2: well, I’m not a shareholder so I won’t pretend to know everything the company is doing, but I have eyes to see, and what they see is that this is a company that appears to have put all their eggs in one basket. Countless companies all over the world have done this, but the toy industry is going to be one of the most impacted. Again: I don’t claim to be privy to the inner workings and balance sheets of the company, but it seems logical that – barring some unforeseen circumstance that may yet happen – Round 2 is likely to be out of business by the end of this year, if not sooner.
Sadly, it appears that the 25-year run of the rebirth of the Thunderjet is probably coming to an end.
Generational Shift
You can argue that it was always going to end: my generation is probably the last one that played with toy cars as kids to any extent, and what’s keeping these companies afloat today is nostalgic adults. But hey, we’re not done yet; I’d like to think I had at least another 20 years of playing with toy cars in me. And, God willing, I probably do…its just that I’ll be buying all those toy cars used. I made the case already that there’s still plenty of cool vintage toys out there to buy, and there’s no worry about tariffs there! If I had to bet, though, I would say that in a year’s time, you’ll be buying most of your toys second-hand on ebay, Etsy and Mercari.
“Gutenberg Moments”
The trade war with China may be our most immediate worry, but its far from our only one, and I have touched on some of the other concerns just recently, as well. At a glance, in addition to the necessary decoupling from China, we also have the situations with:
-Taiwan
-Iran
-The Sovereign Debt Crisis
…and the one that may make all the others pale into insignificance:
-AI
And this is all assuming that we don’t have another global pandemic, and there’s plenty of reputable people telling us that something worse than “COVID” may be just around the corner! So, you could find a lot to worry about if you wanted too!
All of these issues seem to be happening at the same time; anyone of them could be a “Gutenberg Moment,” in reference to the printing press that changed the world in the 1200s. I can’t think of another time in history – except for, perhaps, the first 15 years of the 20th century – when so much change happened so fast. You remember what happened by 1914…right?
“Darkest before the Dawn”
Yes, the near future is going to be a little rough; we’re not going to starve, but we are going to see disruptions, and the shocking speed at which AI is going to develop now that it has clearly reached an “inflection point” is likely to put countless millions of people out of work over the next few years, and there’s a very good chance that that includes your bumble blogger.
Obviously if missles start flying, all bets are off; I was just breathing a sign of relief that we aren’t going to war with Russia over Ukraine after the election last November, only to now fear we may be going to war with Russia over Iran. But it doesn’t have to be that way, and it may not be; a lot of things could happen.
But again, this I know: something had to change. The status quo had run its course. The “Rules-based liberal order” the WEF’ers like to wring their hands over could have lasted another generation if they hadn’t gotten so venal and greedy: where would we be, for instance, if Western corporations had outsourced some manufacturing to Asia, instead of nearly all of it? And would “Wrecking Ball” Donald Trump have regained the presidency if the “Best and the Brightest” hadn’t spent the last 40 years looking down their noses at everyone who didn’t graduate from Harvard? Sure, we can heap scorn on China for their 2-faced dealings, but there’s a limit to how much you can blame your adversary for running with the ball. We “unwashed masses” know that it was our CEOs, it was our financial titans, it was our politicians that sold us out! They took the greatest nation in the history of the world and bankrupted it in less than a generation! We know who’s responsible! The bi-coastal “cognoscenti” forgot that “Pride comes before the fall.” “Resist” all you want, its too late now: the “Wrecking Ball” is in motion!
And now to bring it back to Drag City Raceway: we working class Americans and Canadians in our modest homes with our workaday jobs are going to have to make some adjustments. It could be bad, but it doesn’t have to be. We are long, long overdue for this “de-coupling,” and I’m choosing to be hopeful about the future…but that doesn’t mean I won’t miss my Auto World slot cars and die-casts, my Tomy AFX track, and all my other 1:64 pieces that have made the last few years so happy. Sadly, all good things must come to an end. Maybe it’s time for me to move on, too.
Well, for the time being, I’ll keep recreating my little world in my basement for as long as I can with the parts I’ve collected and whatever else I can scrounge up, and meanwhile keep doing my best in the world above ground. Maybe I will be displaced by AI, but if I am, I’m going to have a lot of company. Thus, it is time to “widen my gaze” and look at new and productive ways to spend my time; it may be different, and for a while things may get “weird,” but no matter how things “shake out,” I believe there’s a future after “MADE IN CHINA.”
DISCLAIMER (ADDENDUM)
I openly admit that there’s a possibility that I have no idea what I’m talking about here; its possible that there are things going on “behind the scenes” in government and corporate boardrooms that will take our current situation in directions we can’t see coming. I’m just calling it like I see it now; that’s about all any of us can do.